The Diver & The Ocean

Exploring The Water of Systems Change

After two great chats with friends this morning, I was invited to look into the Water of Systems Change, a framework developed by John Kania, Mark Kramer and Peter Senge . ¹

I’ve used waterfall, waterpark and water flow metaphors in family and organizational settings for a few years but was unfamiliar with this particular framework. In seeking out a primer on the topic, I asked ChatGPT to provide a synopsis while riffing on its extension to the systems-sensing framework of my previous post. The following is the slightly edited result of the prompted inquiry.

The Water of Systems Change

Kania, Kramer, and Senge’s framework is foundational in understanding how systemic change happens, especially in complex social systems. Their model identifies the different levels at which change can occur, recognizing that to transform a system, one must address not only visible structures and processes but also the deeper, often hidden, influences like power dynamics, relationships, and mental models.

Let's break down the framework and then look at how it might apply in a “systems-sensing” context.

The Three Levels

The Water of Systems Change framework divides systemic change into three distinct but interconnected levels.

1. Structural Change (Explicit Level)
   This is the most visible level and includes policies, practices, and resource flows. Structural changes are the “rules” and “resources” that govern how the system operates, such as laws, organizational policies, and budget allocations. Think of these as the physical infrastructure and formal processes within the system.
   

2. Relational Change (Semi-Visible Level)
   Beneath the surface, the next level is relational, dealing with relationships and power dynamics within the system. This level addresses how power is distributed, who holds influence, and how people and organizations interact. Relational change influences the flow of information, resources, and opportunities, often subtly shaping outcomes.
   

3. Transformational Change (Implicit Level)
   At the deepest level, we have transformational change², which focuses on mental models. These are the underlying beliefs, values, and assumptions that people hold about how the world works. Mental models are often unspoken but profoundly affect behavior. For real, lasting change, shifts at this level are essential because they reshape the collective “why” behind actions.

Kania, Kramer, and Senge describe these levels as being like “the water we swim in” - often invisible yet shaping every aspect of how we operate within a system. To create meaningful change, they argue, we must look beyond visible structures and engage with the deeper, invisible levels of the system.

Image generated via Midjourney v6.1

Applying Systems-Sensing to The Water of Systems Change

Now, let’s explore how this model of change can align with a systems-sensing approach. In systems-sensing, we don’t just think about these levels abstractly—we actively try to perceive them, often through more intuitive and embodied methods. Let’s map the three levels of systems change onto a systems sensing metaphor, imagining the system as a vast, interconnected ocean with visible, semi-visible, and invisible currents.

1. Structural Level (Surface Waves)

   Imagine that the structural level of the system is like the visible waves on the surface of an ocean. You can see the rules and formal processes moving visibly, like waves lapping along the shoreline or crashing with force.
   
   In systems-sensing, at this level, you would “see” the explicit policies, procedures, and formal relationships—things like laws, organizational structures, and budgets—by observing and interacting with the visible forms of the system. A systems sensor might notice, for instance, how formal meetings are conducted, how resources are allocated, and where there are physical or social barriers.
   

2. Relational Level (Underwater Currents)
   Beneath the surface, relational dynamics are like the underwater currents that shape how things flow within the ocean but aren’t immediately visible. These currents move the water and affect everything above, even though we can’t see them from the surface.
   
   In a systems sensing approach, you would use social intuition and relational awareness to “feel” these undercurrents. These could be sensed by tuning into the ways people interact, noticing subtle power plays, and understanding who influences whom. For example, if certain voices consistently dominate meetings, or if a particular team’s opinion is always heeded, these clues point to the invisible currents of power and influence within the system.
   

3. Transformational Level (Temperature and Chemical Makeup of the Ocean)
   At the deepest level, we have the water’s temperature, chemical composition, and ecological makeup—these are the underlying conditions of the ocean, akin to the mental models in a system. They’re hard to detect without diving deep but are the most fundamental influencers of the ocean’s behavior and life within it.
   
   Systems sensing at this level requires what we might call a “deeper empathy” or a form of collective awareness. To sense this level, one might have to engage in reflective practices, like dialoguing with diverse voices, examining personal biases, and uncovering the deeply held beliefs that shape the system’s values and decisions. For instance, if a company repeatedly prioritizes profit over people, that reveals a mental model valuing profit as the ultimate success indicator.

The Diver & The Ocean

Imagine you’re a diver exploring this ocean of systemic change. A systems-sensing diver wouldn’t just observe the visible waves or focus only on currents. Instead, they would engage all senses to feel out and respond to the entire environment.

1. Starting at the Surface (Waves)
   They’d take stock of the waves, reading the visible patterns. For example, they’d look at policies, roles, and rules that govern what’s “allowed” and “not allowed.” They might sense that certain people have louder voices or that resources are allocated in specific, predictable ways. This tells them about the system’s explicit structure.
   

2. Moving Deeper (Currents)
   Diving beneath, the diver feels the underwater currents tugging in different directions. Here, they’re sensing the social dynamics, where power flows, and who influences whom. This level can be perceived by tuning into unspoken alliances, subtle forms of resistance, or informal power brokers who shape outcomes without formal authority.
   

3. Deepest Levels (Temperature and Composition)
   At the depths, the diver starts to sense the water’s underlying temperature and chemical makeup, representing the mental models within the system. At this depth, they might recognize deeply embedded beliefs—such as the unquestioned priority of competition over collaboration or the assumption that hierarchy equals value. These insights emerge through deep reflection, listening to marginalized perspectives, and examining assumptions collectively held by the group.

In this way, systems sensing becomes a full-bodied engagement with the system as a dynamic and layered ocean. A systems sensor, like our metaphorical diver, engages with the system through the whole spectrum of perception—from visible structures to invisible relational currents to the foundational beliefs that form the “temperature” and “chemistry” of the system.

Putting It All Together: Sensing the Ocean of Systems Change

To truly “swim in the water” of systems change as Kania, Kramer, and Senge suggest, systems sensing encourages us to:

1. Engage the Head for structural insights (analyzing explicit rules and policies).

2. Engage the Heart for relational dynamics (noticing how power flows and relationships influence outcomes).

3. Engage the Gut for deeper beliefs and mental models (exploring shared assumptions and deeply held beliefs that underlie behaviour).

4. And finally, Engage the Whole Life System.

Through systems-sensing, we become not just observers but active participants in understanding and navigating change. Like a skilled diver, we develop a sensitivity to the layers and subtle shifts within the system, positioning us to respond adaptively and responsibly to the full depth of the ocean of change.

1. The Water of Systems Change, by John Kania Mark Kramer Peter Senge

2. More to explore via Joe Pine’s Transformations Book on Substack.